Draft your Running Backs Early!

Each year, positional variability can fluctuate greatly. Sometimes quarterbacks are particularly deep in terms of value. Other years, there can be upwards of 20 viable running backs. This year, however, the running back dead zone has never been more prominent. Typically, the running back dead zone refers to rounds 4-6, where teams who have drafted wide receiver heavy, tight end heavy, or have reached for their stud quarterback in round 3 hit the panic button and select the most notable running back left on the board, regardless of if it’s considered a good value. In order to avoid the dreaded dead zone this year, make sure you’re walking out of the first three rounds with at least one, preferably two elite running backs as the core of your team.

Let’s dive into the major reason why this strategy is one of the most viable one to help you win your league this year. It’s unfortunate to say, but after the top 12 running backs, their value takes a nose dive, and we’re left with 9 backs who all have question marks to some extent. In other words, selecting them in rounds 4-6, simply is not commensurate with their value. The RBs are as follows: Breece Hall, James Cook, Alvin Kamara, Kenneth Walker, Omarion Hampton, Chuba Hubbard, Joe Mixon, James Conner, and David Montgomery. While we won’t go through all nine of them, let’s highlight a few of the major names. 

James Cook

RB • BUF

SEASONAL STATS

📊 Projections2024

📈 2025 Season Projections

PPR Points

220.2

Rush Attempts

225

Rush Yards

1035

Rush TDs

8

Receptions

33

Receiving Yards

257

First is James Cook, who despite putting up 16 rushing TDs last season, is not worth the hype he’s getting. Cook is a major candidate for significant touchdown regression. He should be viewed as more of a complementary piece to an already stacked RB room, as opposed to an RB1 on a pass catcher heavy team. Additionally, the presence of Josh Allen always makes it a strong possibility that Cook will get what should be his easy touchdowns vultured. While Cook is still a good player, it appears very likely that 2024 will wind up being the best season of his career statistically. That means that you would be drafting him at his ceiling. There are simply better values to take in that range.

Alvin Kamara

RB • NO

SEASONAL STATS

📊 Projections2024

📈 2025 Season Projections

PPR Points

228.0

Rush Attempts

210

Rush Yards

875

Rush TDs

5

Receptions

59

Receiving Yards

435

Another guy in this group of nine is Alvin Kamara. Kamara has consistently put up elite fantasy numbers throughout his career. However, this is far and away the worst this Saints offense has ever looked. Their quarterback situation is easily the worst in the entire NFL, which will make it difficult for Kamara to make much of anything happen against defenses that should be selling out to stop him. Simply put, Kamara’s upside exists solely in PPR leagues where he should once again be a safety blanket for whomever of Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough ends up as the starter. Regardless, this likely won’t amount to many scrimmage yards, and certainly not many touchdowns.

James Conner

RB • ARI

SEASONAL STATS

📊 Projections2024

📈 2025 Season Projections

PPR Points

221.3

Rush Attempts

214

Rush Yards

951

Rush TDs

8

Receptions

39

Receiving Yards

292

The final player we’ll look at in this dead zone is James Conner. Conner finished last year as the overall RB10 in half PPR, and if he’s healthy, don’t be surprised to see him finish in a similar spot this year. The problem is that for a 30 year old running back, who has had injury issues in the past, it’s worth considering if this is the year that the injury bug once again catches up with him. Additionally, the Cardinals selected RB Trey Benson in the third round of the 2024 draft. Although considered a raw prospect, it’s worth wondering if the Cardinals will look to integrate Benson into the backfield alongside Conner, thus possibly decreasing his workload.

In conclusion, if you want to dominate your league this year, you must prioritize drafting your running backs early and often. There have been years where the zero RB strategy has proven effective, but this is not the year to go that route. Get your established running backs early, and reap the rewards all year long.